As many political spectators say, campaign season ramps up after Labor Day. Candidates are in a sprint to the finish just over six weeks to go until the November 3 general election. We issued an initial election outlook in June. After a summer of social unrest in cities across the country, an ongoing pandemic, and two national political conventions, one thing remains certain: voter preferences have not changed significantly since June.

Presidential Election Analysis

A Marquette University Law School poll from September 9 shows Democrat and former Vice President Joe Biden holds a four-point lead over Republican incumbent President Donald Trump in Wisconsin. A Washington Post poll from September 16 shows Biden holds a six-point lead in the state. Biden has held a four to six point in nearly every statewide poll since May. With neither candidate able to gain any ground, this could indicate a lack of a substantial set of swing voters in the state.

Discouraging to the Trump campaign, the President’s approval ratings in Wisconsin have consistently been below 50 percent while his disapproval ratings have consistently exceeded 50 percent in the Marquette University Law School polls this election season.

In a somewhat different take on gauging support for candidates, the September 9 poll asked participants if they believe each candidate cares about people like them. 41 percent said they believe Donald Trump cares about people like them, versus 56 percent who said he does not. Conversely, 48 percent said they believe Joe Biden cares about people like them, versus 45 percent who said he does not.

State Legislative Races

Meanwhile, in the state legislative races, it seems to be a tale of two houses. Assembly Republicans are playing more defense to protect current members while Senate Republicans are able to go on offense to try pick up some seats. While it is likely the Republicans will maintain majorities in both houses, insiders will be watching so see how many seats the Assembly Republicans may lose and how many the Senate Republicans may gain.

State Assembly Election Analysis

There are several somewhat vulnerable Republican Assembly seats in western Wisconsin. These include the 51^st District held by Todd Novak, the 96^th District held by Loren Oldenburg, and the 50^th District held by Tony Kurtz. However, these are seats Republicans traditionally expect to be contested and defend in campaign cycles.

This year, Assembly Republicans are also focusing their attention on defending seats in higher population areas in the Milwaukee suburbs and Green Bay area. Polling nationally has found that suburban women who have traditionally supported Republicans do not support Donald Trump. Should enough of that demographic abandon not just Trump but Republicans in general, that could spell problems for some suburban Republicans in relatively vulnerable seats. In particular, considerable efforts are being made to hold on to the 13^th District held by Rob Hutton, the 24^th District held by Dan Knodl, and 23^rd District held by Jim Ott.

Assembly Republicans currently hold a 27-seat majority, 63 to 36 seats. Even if they lose five to seven seats, they still maintain control of the Assembly. At this point, it seems likely they may lose a handful of seats. However, in 2018, many expected Assembly Democrats to flip several seats and they won just one in the Milwaukee suburbs, which was an open race.

State Senate Election Analysis

In contrast, Senate Republicans, who held 19 of the 33 Senate seats in the 2019-2020 legislative session are aiming to pick-up three seats. Doing so would provide them with 22 seats, enough to override any vetoes from Democratic Governor Tony Evers. A veto-proof majority in the State Senate would spell serious problems for the Evers Administration.

In the open 30^th Senate District in Green Bay, Democrat Jonathan Hansen is facing off against Republican Eric Wimberger. Both are political newcomers. The seat is being vacated by Democrat Senator Dave Hansen, who held the seat since 2000.

Looking at the performance of Republican presidential candidates in the last two elections, Romney lost the 30^th Senate District with 47.7% of the vote and Trump won it with 55.6%. If Trump performs well in Green Bay again, then it is conceivable Wimberger could win the district.

The open 32^nd Senate District is also a possible pick-up for Republicans. Former State Senator and Republican Dan Kapanke is running against former Secretary-designee of the Department of Agriculture, Tradem and Consumer Protection and Democrat Brad Pfaff.

The seat was left open following the resignation of Democratic Senator Jennifer Shilling, who narrowly defeated Kapanke in 2016. While the 32^nd Senate District in LaCrosse is typically a strong Democrat district, Trump did significantly better than Romney. Should Trump increase support in the LaCrosse area, Kapanke may have a chance.

Finally, political spectators are also keeping a close eye on the 10th Senate District in northwest Wisconsin, which is held by Democrat Patty Schachtner. Schachtner handily won the seat by 10-percentage points in special election in 2018. Schachtner is running against current area Republican State Representative Rob Stafsholt.

Republicans currently hold all three Assembly seats that comprise the Senate district, and Trump won the district with 55.6% of the vote in 2016. Again, Stasholt’s success may rely on the district’s support for Trump.

With the Office of the President being the only statewide race on the ballot, success for Democrats and Republicans in the state legislature could rely solely on attitudes in the presidential race.

However, while Wisconsin is considered one of the foremost battle ground states this year and Biden leads Trump in recent polling, the vast majority of Democratic voters reside in Milwaukee County and Dane County (Madison). Democrats already hold the legislative seats in these two areas. The reality of how voters are distributed in the state lends itself to the possibility that the Democratic nominee for president wins the state and legislative Republicans return with large majorities again.

Stay tuned for developments in what is sure to be an eventful fall.